Friday 7th July 2017 saw the official start of the two-day G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, were delegates from 19 countries come together to discuss matters ranging from free trade to Global warming. We have compiled this quick guide to what you can expect from the markets after this year’s summit.
What is G20?
The G20 started in 1999 as a meeting of Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis. In 2008, the first G20 Leaders’ Summit was held, the main issue discussed was in responding to the global financial crisis. The decisive and coordinated actions boosted consumer and business confidence and supported the first stages of economic recovery.
Who is a member of the G20?
The members of the G20 are Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, South Korea, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States and the European Union. The group represents around two thirds of the world’s population, and 80% of the world’s trade and economic activity.
The G20 is two days of formal meetings, preceded by informal meet-ups. Since last year’s meeting in China, over a quarter of the countries are under new leadership; Donald Trump (USA), Theresa May (UK), Michel Temer (Brazil), Paolo Gentiloni (Italy), Moon Jae-in (South Korea), and Emmanuel Macron (France).
What should you expect from the markets?
According to research in 2014 by ECB (European Central Bank) concluded “The big picture arising from our analysis is that effects of G20 summits are small, short-lived, non-systematic and non-robust.” Although, they did emphasize they weren’t able to measure the long term impact associated with policy makers becoming familiar with each other and long term trade deals negotiated once the summits had ended.
I think it’s vital to add that this study was completed before the era of President Trump. No leader in recent years has so avidly professed his disdain for the current frame work of world trade, believing that the rest of the world is benefiting from America’s weakly negotiated trade deals. His protectionist views, meaning protecting domestic industry from global competition, would benefit the US economy in the long term if enacted. How will “America First” resonate with the twenty other leaders? It’s impossible to predict, but any statement or plan advancing his wish-listed views would see a global market reaction.
By: Samuel Hertz